Both Nobiz Like Shobiz and Curlin figure to attract significant support at the windows in the Kentucky Derby. In fact, Curlin will likely be favored.

Yet each offers reasons to hesitate before running to the windows and betting the farm.

With respect to Nobiz Like Shobiz, he has shown a tendency to lose focus, and although he seemed better in the Wood Memorial with the addition of blinkers, Aqueduct is a track he had already raced over, and hardly resembled a Derby Day atmosphere. David Grening of Daily Racing Form even reported that Nobiz Like Shobiz got to looking at the cars parked in the infield of the Belmont Park training track during a recent work, and Barclay Tagg had Cornelio Velasquez work him close to the fence in his latest drill in an effort to keep him from bearing out on that first turn. Sure sounds like a work in progress, and who knows if all the pieces have yet fallen into place.

As for Curlin, he has gotten more professional with each successive race, yet the fact remains he has had only three, and didn’t even begin his racing career until February.

So what would constitute a fair price come post time on May 5?

Nobiz Like Shobiz was between 8-1 and 10-1 in the three Future Wager pools, and 10-1 seems about right.

Curlin, on the other hand, went from 30-1 in Pool 2 to a paltry 7/2 in Pool 3. While not the type of horse you would want to leave completely out of exotics, Curlin was a terrible play at 7/2 on April 15, and isn’t much better at these same odds on May 5. The undefeated Barbaro went off at odds of 6-1 one year ago, and a similar price on Curlin would be appealing, but not likely.