Saratoga Picks: July 25
RACE 1
WIN — Welcome back to Saratoga! SI O NO gets the edge is an ultra competitive meet opener, eerily similiar to last year’s first race. Reynolds trainee comes back on just 12 days rest and takes a realistic class drop after knocking on the door versus better all year. Reynolds runners finished first or second in 6 of 13 races here last summer.
PLACE — MASSOUD took the first race of the 2006 season, and now returns under identical circumstances: ridden by Velazquez off an October layoff at the same level for Motion. Even wore saddlecloth number 3 last summer. Was one of 18 horses to win two races at last year’s meet.
SHOW — NOAH A. has finished in the exacta in half of his 20 career starts, although Kimmel was just one for 15 on the Spa turf last year. Won for this tag two back when aided by a rapid pace up front, which may not develop today. If run on Main Track: 1. Taming the Tiger; 2. Massoud; 3. Pangburn.
RACE 2
WIN — The first baby race of the meet hosts several with solid race experience, yet the edge goes to the Pletcher firster FOREST PRINCE. Son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft has trained steadily at Oklahoma all season, and most recent gate move was the finishing touch. Pletcher scored with just a single debut runner on dirt here last summer (Panty Raid).
PLACE — IMMORTAL EYES ran very fast in his career debut, but was no match behind stablemate Fed Watcher, who will return in Thursday’s Sanford. Worked in tandem with that mate on July 21, and a repeat performance will be very tough to match. Violette won with four juveniles at the 2006 meet, and all carried Garrett Gomez, who has the call here.
SHOW — SHOTTEN HEIMER may bypass this spot in favor of an ambitious attempt in the Sanford, where he has also been entered. Worked a quick half-mile at Keeneland on July 14, and the only one faster that morning was Incriminate (race 8). Trainer Jamie Sanders wins races with Teuflesberg, but not many others as her 3-for-157 record this year attests.
RACE 3
WIN — DEADLY DEALER would be no surprise to return to the form that saw him roll to a seven-length victory in early March at Gulfstream. By the same token, he could just as easily get beaten 15 like his most recent outing. Toss of the coin, but he won’t be favored today, has trained well and draws outside the other speed. Extend him this last chance to make amends for his Woody Stephens debacle on the return to allowance company.
PLACE — Should Deadly Dealer falter, SCORPIUS seems logical to take advantage. Must spot the top choice seven pounds and overcome the rail, but is 2-for-2 over non-synthetic surfaces. Some concerns over the gaps in his running lines, and he makes just his fourth career start here, but will be a factor if right.
SHOW — GRAND CHAMPION may prove to be overbet for Jimmy Jerkens, who struggled mightily at the Spa last summer (1-for-21). Did earn a narrow victory over the Amsterdam-bound Americanus last out, and will probably go postward as the favorite for the fifth consecutive race, but top pair seem just as likely at better odds.
RACE 4
WIN — First of many turf sprints this meet. SARAH’S SMILER may prove the quickest of these early, and seems to be on the improve running first out of the barn of Anthony Dutrow. Dominguez, who rode just 18 races here one year ago, has the call.
PLACE — Belmont training champion Gary Contessa figures to have a better meet than last year when he won just eight races, and saddles the pair of SISTER DESIREE and HOLY TROUBLE. Former looks stronger on the class drop, having contested the Babae in her latest after finding an allownace condition with Lear’s Princess two back.
SHOW — DATA took some support when making her North American debut on dirt Memorial Day weekend downstate. Never really looked comfortable that day, but now gets a return to the surface over which she ran her two best races in Argentina. Gomez stays and a strong work over the Oklahoma turf 10 days ago signals an improved effort on the horizon. If run on Main Track: 1. Forest Jazzy; 2. Striking Tomisue; 3. Go West Madam.
RACE 5
WIN — BOROBUDUR was entered on June 30 at Belmont, but scratched and subsequently worked five furlongs the following morning. Guess the scratch wasn’t injury related, so assume it was to wait for this meet. Prado was named that day and is back to try again.
PLACE — VIRGINIA MINSTREL has run two decent races thus far this season, showing the versatility to set the pace on May 28 prior to rallying nicely for the place in his latest. Figures prominent throughout for dangerous connections of Tagg and Coa.
SHOW — WARN endured a tough trip in his last, attempting to close from the back of the pack while coming up a half-length shy with repeated traffic trouble through the lane. Has registered better speed figures with each successive start, and continued improvement with a clean journey will place him in the mix at a square price beneath Calvin. If run on Main Track: 1. All Versus; 2. Borobudur; 3. On Fire.
RACE 6
WIN — Lots of speed lined up in this cheap claimer, and perhaps MELODEEMAN will be the one to roll home late off the extended vacation for Contessa and Coa. Rather light worktab, although he has been stabled locally since early summer.
PLACE — CALCULATOR got really sharp this past winter at Aqueduct, where he managed to encounter traffic trouble in several starts. Sports a quick drill on July 13 in advance, and have to like the fact Cornelio takes the reins.
SHOW — AGAIN AND AGAIN has certainly been facing better of late, although he just hasn’t seemed the same since departing the McLaughlin barn four back. Replacing Rojas with Bejarano is enough reason to take a look at a big price in a chaotic race.
RACE 7
WIN — Competitive field of state-breds on the turf here. Slight edge goes to DANTASTIC, who closed smartly to graduate in his latest and now keeps the services of Johnny V., who rode the grass here exceptionally well last summer . Would have preferred an inside post, but he is likely to race off the pace so it shouldn’t pose much of a problem.
PLACE — GOLD PAGEANTRY was too tough to use in the top slot given his 1-for-19 career record, but his recent efforts certainly give him a realistic chance here. Raced three times in the month of June, so these past couple of weeks off may have done him wonders.
SHOW — STATELY PEGASUS is the type of horse that needs to be included in the exotics, but is a tough sell for the Win. Rallied to beat a weak group on Belmont Stakes Day, and just looks the sort to rally late before running out of ground on the slight cutback in distance. If run on Main Track: 1. Dantastic; 2. Winaway; 3. Galluscio entry.
RACE 8
WIN — INCRIMINATE was a debut winner on Travers Day last summer, and makes his first start of the year here. Worktab has been brilliant, and it is certainly intriguing that Johhny takes the call rather than ride for Pletcher. Mate BLUE SKY GOD likewise arrives fresh, and figures to provide a late punch through the lane.
PLACE — GARAFINE sold for $1.8 million at the 2-year-old sales, but didn’t debut until this spring where he tired badly on Kentucky Oaks Day. Never looked back in his latest, but will likely be under the gun every step of the way with Incriminate drawing outside. Should Incriminate scratch, elevate him to the top slot over Blue Sky God.
SHOW — PAUILLAC may be the one to benefit most from a torrid duel up front. Debut score was an off-the-pace score typical of Keeneland, yet the Biancone runner has trained well since and looms appealing to complete the exotics with Leparoux up.
RACE 9
WIN — LADY CHACE seeks to give Pletcher his fourth Schuylerville in the past five years, winning this race one year ago with Cotton Blossom. Daughter of Tiznow sure looked good winning her debut by over 10 lengths, and may be let go at square odds with several other debut winners posting gaudy figures. Entrymate NEW YORK CITY GIRL is expected to scratch in favor of the the Colleen Stakes at Monmouth.
PLACE — One of the more impressive debut winners at the Belmont meet was ACCORDING TO PLAN, who returns here for Tagg and Cornelio. Tagg said afterward that he had high expectations for this filly, and she shows a good breeze locally in preparation for this.
SHOW — Asmussen has dominated the juvenile scene in Kentucky this spring, and may have a sleeper in BLITZING, who breaks from the far outside. Her debut was less than sensational and the time was ordinary, but she could sit a sweet trip from just off the pace.
RACE 10
WIN — PAPA’S KARA broke through with a convincing score on June 8 downstate, leaving the remainder of the field strung out behind her. Prado sees fit to keep the call, and three strong four-furlong works since indicate she may be primed to make it two in a row.
PLACE — BEHRDINE made four starts at age 3, finishing in the exacta in three of those. Bond has had her working here all spring long, no doubt with this meet as the goal. Gomez rides this daughter of Behrens.
SHOW — COURT AND SPARK has been a bit of a tough luck filly, checking in second in five of 12 career starts. Should be closing late, and may be aided by the front-runners packing it in. THE CHELSEA COMET has been away since the summer of 2004, but hasn’t trained like a 30-1 of late at Monmouth and gets CVel.
BEST BET
Papa’s Kara (Race 10)
PICK 4 PLAYS
Early: 6,8 with 1,4 with 1,6 with 7,8
Late: 7,11 with 1,3 with 1,4,5,8 with 3
2006 Meet Record: 336-104-65-41
2006 $2 Win Total: $644.50
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