Saratoga Picks: July 30
RACE 1
WIN — WALLY WORLD likely possesses the best early speed, but will need to use some of it with an outside post and a quick run to the first turn. Prado and Levine are lethal together. Has run well when fresh in the past, including an eight length score to begin the year.
PLACE — SHIFTER last raced on Closing Day at Belmont Park, where he finished a non-threatening fifth. In making his third of the season here, he returns on short rest, picks up Dominguez, and should have plenty of pace to rally into.
SHOW — STUD MUFFIN is in the best form of his career and should appreciate the added ground today.
RACE 2
WIN — He has certainly had his chances, but CARSON CAMP may have finally found a field he can beat. Second in four of nine career tries, he holds the quickest early foot and should be able to scamper clear early and not look back.
PLACE — Not sure what to make of PENNANT RACE, who was bought for $190K last February and will finally debut here. Work tab is very strong — including a pair of recent bullets — yet he runs for a tag of $35K today for a trainer that has lost with his last 20 firsters.
SHOW — MAX’S BID was a distant second in his only prior start, although the winner that day returned to finish last here on Friday.
RACE 3
WIN — Using this as a prep for the Aug. 18 Alabama, LADY JOANNE stands out in this short field of five. Was dead-game on the inside of Octave in the Mother Goose, and anything closely resembling that effort will win this in a walk.
PLACE — LEO’S PEGASUS took seven races to graduate from the N2X condition, yet seems to be one that appreciates two turns, which she will get here. Close runner-up finish to Ginger Punch three starts back looks better now that she has become a Grade 1 winner courtesy of Saturday’s Go For Wand.
SHOW — ALTESSE is a grinder that figures to plug along for a minor award, but is nowhere near the caliber of the top choice.
RACE 4
WIN — Pletcher dominates in juvenile sprints, and has gotten a pair of starts into ITS READY to set her up for this. Flashed much better early speed in her latest with blinkers added.
PLACE — OUR DREAMETTE had no excuse in her last, losing a narrow decision to Dicey DJ. Some consolation that her rival came back to run fifth in the Schuylerville.
SHOW — PRAIRIE MELODY debuts for Linda Rice, who does well enough with first-time starters and very well in turf sprints to earn a share at 20-1. If run on Main Track: 1. Boston Cat; 2. Pletcher entry; 3. Vivacious Vivian.
RACE 5
WIN — Tough group here, but EXTRA ZIP has run hard and well in each of his last two races, and the jock change from Rojas to Dominguez would seemingly be a positive adjustment.
PLACE — TRIPLE BOGEY BLUES has faded through the lane of recent tries, albeit going slightly longer. Returns to the distance of his best career effort, although worry he lacks the needed kick to score.
SHOW — TYPHOON TYCOON just missed by a neck when trying turf for the first time last out. Trainer Linda Fisher just 1-for-the year, so difficult to accord the edge.
If run on Main Track: 1. Deb’s Roof; 2. Typhoon Tycoon; 3. Extra Zip.
RACE 6
WIN — Spent an inordinate amount of time looking at this race, finally landing on HUNTING. A bit concerned that he has failed to get the job done in his two starts despite having victory in his crosshairs in each, but may just this longer distance. Continues to improve.
PLACE — PAST THE POINT has taken money in all three career tries, and should relish the added ground being a son of Indian Charlie. Will need to avoid being hung out into the first turn.
SHOW — EXTREME SUPREME ran the race of his life when graduating by seven conclusive lengths last summer. Dangerous on his best.
RACE 7
WIN — Back to the grass, and CHESTORIA will stroll if Levine has her in the same form she was in when last seen in October. Beat open company in the Miss Grillo to win her second consecutive start on turf, has trained very well downstate.
PLACE — JESSE’S JUSTICE has found soft races to register both career wins, yet will need to step up her game considerably to defeat the top choice.
SHOW — Undefeated NEHANTIC KAT draws the dreaded extreme outside for his first start since September. Not today, but watch his effort as he may be one to watch for next time under better circumstances and with this race under his belt. If run on Main Track: 1. Western Sweep; 2. Nehantic Kat; 3. Love Cove.
RACE 8
WIN — Very competitive renewal of the Amsterdam. ROMAN’S RUN is rapidly improving for co-owner Dale Romans, and actually made a few different moves in his latest, which was done without much urging. Will be flying late beneath Garrett.
PLACE — FORTY GRAMS cuts back in distance for this, and may find this route to his liking at big odds. One of few that are graded stakes battle-tested.
SHOW — HOLY CANYON will likely take the worst of it being inside the other speed once Roman’s Run drops back early. Having dueled with the likes of Rondo and Abraaj, just may appreciate the company here.
RACE 9
WIN — DANCING TIN MAN had little chance in his last, facing better in a race that went very slow and very fast late. Back versus claiming ranks, and may surprise in a big way to end the first week.
PLACE — MARROUCHE has two wins and a third from the last three times he has toted Kent D.
SHOW — QUICK COMEBACK will be pressing the issue early on, and will be difficult to catch if left unattended for too long. HAWKINSVILLE makes a rare Spa race for trainer Wesley Ward, who can be dangerous when teamed with Johnny.
If run on Main Track: 1. Marrouche; 2. Hawkinsville; 3. Mount Wilton.
BEST BET: Lade Joanne (Race 3)
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