With its cavalry-charge field of 20 horses, the Kentucky Derby instinctively leads horseplayers and fans alike toward long shots. After all, with graded stakes earnings the basis for entry, all have “earned” their way into the starting gate, and with such an enormous field, juicy prices exist on many contenders.

Thus, it is easy to find flaws in the favorites in an attempt to gravitate towards a longer price.

Yet in analyzing this Derby, is it possible that Big Brown is really as good as he is hyped to be? And versus a field where consistency and/or just being fast are not commonly found, is he just flat out better than the rest?

Trainer Rick Dutrow believes so, saying that, on paper, the Derby is a weak race, and he would be shocked if his horse doesn’t win.

With all of the information and analysis that goes into this race — after all, we have been previewing it since February — it is easy to overthink and overhandicap the Run for the Roses. Perhaps it is proper to simply look at it as any other horse race, and conclude that the undefeated Big Brown is simply head and heels better than these, and because it is the Kentucky Derby, his price will be in the neighborhood of 3-1 as opposed to 3/5 had it been a mid-winter race at Aqueduct.

Only two minutes on May 3 will tell whether Big Brown was simply the best, or whether only three career starts was truly a reason to shy away.