When filling out office pools for the NCAA Basketball Tournament, it is natural to avoid placing all four top seeds in the Final Four. After all, part of the lure of the “Big Dance” is the shocking upsets and Cinderella stories.

A similar tendency permeates handicapping the Kentucky Derby. With a full field of 20 3-year-olds all trying a distance they have never tried before, it is tempting to search for Cinderella. Certainly, editions where 50-1 Giacomo finishes a half-length in front of 71-1 Closing Argument – as happened in 2005 – fuel this desire.

Yet Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina and UCLA – the four number one seeds – all advanced to comprise the Final Four in this year’s tournament, and the logical entrants in the Derby likewise figure to prove simply better than their competition.

While the basketball scenario was unprecedented, well-backed runners have a history of running well in the Kentucky Derby, and can still yield substantial returns.

Just last year, the first three across the line were favored Street Sense, 10-1 fourth-choice Hard Spun, and 5-1 second-choice Curlin, resulting in a trifecta payout of $440.

It could very easily prove that the 2007 Run for the Roses offers many correlations to today’s renewal.

Street Sense was the most accomplished runner from the previous season, and entered the Derby after failing in the Blue Grass. This year, that role lands with Pyro, who finished second in the Breeders’ Cup, and now seeks to rebound from a miserable effort most recently at Keeneland.

Hard Spun was a consistent performer who raised eyebrows with a blazing workout in the week leading to the Derby. On Sunday, Colonel John emphatically dismissed all suspicion to his ability to handle the Churchill Downs dirt with a sensational five-furlong drill.

This year’s version of Curlin, who entered the Derby an undefeated 3-for-3, is Big Brown, who brings an identical record and similar visions of grandeur to the dance. In all fairness, it is only proper to connect the two at similar stages of their careers as Curlin has since advanced to Horse of the World status.

So, while the Kentucky Derby has written a storied history over the past 133 years, the clue to Derby 134 may have been composed just last year. And while it is fashionable to find that obscure dark horse that lights up the tote board, the shoe may not fit any such long shot in Louisville this year.

The anticipated top three choices in the wagering are the three best of this crop, and just like in college basketball, the winning bracket – or ticket, as the case may be – will include Pyro, Colonel John and Big Brown.

Outside the logical contenders, Court Vision may be sitting on a break-through effort at a nice price.

While showing flashes of talent at age 2, Court Vision has been slow to progress this season for Bill Mott. The son of Gulch has kept the services of Garrett Gomez throughout, and despite failing to close despite given every chance in the Wood Memorial, now adds blinkers and could be passing several through the lane to grab a share.

Todd Pletcher, who saddled five Derby starters last year, didn’t have any confirmed runners until three weeks ago, and now runs his pair of Monba and Cowboy Cal, the exacta from the Blue Grass.

Both were held in high regard to start the year, yet of these, Monba is the preferred starter as Cowboy Cal figures to be spent chasing quick early fractions, if he handles the dirt at all.

Cool Coal Man stands an outside chance of collecting a check, although his run to the clubhouse turn will be critical as he draws the rail post.

There is nothing in the sport that compares to the exhilaration of the start of the Kentucky Derby, the climax to months of anticipation as the field charges beneath the famed Twin Spires, yet at the end of one mile and a quarter and approximately two minutes, expect logic to prevail over chaos:

First – Pyro
Second – Colonel John
Third – Big Brown

Rounding out the top positions should be a combination of Court Vision, Monba and Cool Coal Man.