Big Brown set to deliver overdue Crown
As the horses loaded the starting gate on the first Saturday of May, there was little doubt as to the substantial ability of the undefeated Big Brown. What was not entirely known at the time is just how superior he was to the rest of this 3-year-old crop.
Now, as the horses load into the starting gate on this first Saturday of June, Big Brown, having won the first two legs of the Triple Crown by a combined 10 lengths, has made this perfectly – almost embarrassingly — clear.
Yet despite being a prohibitive 2-5 morning line favorite to win the Belmont Stakes, there remains plenty of intrigue surrounding Big Brown’s race to history – from his lingering and much-talked about quarter crack, to Kent Desormeaux’s brutal loss aboard Real Quiet in a similar situation a decade ago, to Casino Drive attempting to produce a third-straight Belmont victory for his dam, Better Than Honour, and the fact Edgar Prado will ride Casino Drive having halted Triple Crown bids twice before.
Of course the fate of Big Brown in his pursuit of racing immortality, for all of the drama, will be decided by one lap around the daunting Belmont Park oval. His running style is perfectly suited to this race, where his quick acceleration should open daylight turning for home, no doubt creating a wild scene against the backdrop of a packed grandstand.
From a handicapping perspective, finding the winner of the Belmont Stakes figures to prove much simpler than finding pari-mutuel value. Big Brown looms an overwhelming favorite, Casino Drive occupies position as the prime threat, and the vast majority of tickets will not go any deeper. Thus, rewards could be substantial given either a loss by Big Brown, or someone other than Casino Drive completing the exacta.
Casino Drive enters this race much the way Big Brown did the Derby – undefeated, short on experience, untested yet undeniably talented. His Peter Pan was a remarkable performance, and it would not at all be a surprise to see him improve now making just his third career start. That said, it would also not be a shock to see him regress, especially considering a suspected foot bruise prevented him from training on Friday.
The early shape of this race will be fascinating as Da’ Tara, Big Brown and Casino Drive will comprise the first flight. Horses tend to maintain their lanes through the long run to the first turn, which should give Desormeaux ample time and space to maneuver Big Brown to a comfortable spot. Whether he finds Casino Drive glued to his flank will be a critical decision on Prado’s part, and potentially a major influence on what transpires through the late stages.
Beyond Big Brown and Casino Drive, Denis of Cork figures to give a good showing. His third-place Derby finish was an honest effort despite having a less-than-ideal journey to Louisville.
Ready’s Echo finished six lengths behind Casino Drive last out, and a similar effort could very well place him in the superfecta. At every bit of 30-1 for the connections that won this race last year (Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez), he is certainly worth exotic consideration.
The remainder of the field includes Tale of Ekati, who will be making his eighth consecutive graded stakes start. The marathon distance seems to be working against him, but the hard-knocking Barclay Tagg trainee will continue to grind throughout, and does possess a class edge over most.
Macho Again closed well for second in the Preakness, yet can’t envision another step forward in his third start in six weeks despite the services of Garrett Gomez.
Da’ Tara will be the likely pacesetter, although his inability to fend off Roman Emperor going shorter last out doesn’t bode well for his chances.
Anak Nakal is bred better than most to handle the mile and a half, but hasn’t managed to hit the board since November.
Icabad Crane has yet to finish worse than third, but will need dramatic improvement to contend for a piece. The maiden Guadalcanal has been beaten an average of 15 lengths in three prior starts on dirt, and that average only projects to rise.
First: Big Brown
Second: Casino Drive
Third: Denis of Cork
Fourth: Ready’s Echo
There is no telling what success Big Brown would have enjoyed had he faced the likes of Street Sense or Curlin during this Triple Crown run. Certainly, his job has been made easier by the weakness of this class, yet you can only ask him to beat those who line up against him – and that he has done.
Timing is everything, and after 30 years, the timing is right.
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